Well, here comes yet another Trump presidential election day, where we see the results trickle in from yet another tumultuous US election. Sarah Lang presents her part two guide to election week: where to watch the US election, when will we know the results and how to get through the day.
Check out part one for tips on how to stay calm.
It’s been so long coming, but here it is. Thank god – the waiting has been interminable – but also, are we ready for this?
While the U.S. Election Day is November 5, it’s effectively today in New Zealand, given the 18-hour time difference between New Zealand time, and Eastern Time (ET) over there. As far as the seven ‘swing states’ that will decide the election, results should start trickling in from Georgia, then North Carolina, from 7pm ET (1pm our time). Expect results to stream in throughout the afternoon. Some states will be called quickly while others may take quite some time to tally. If one candidate seems to be sweeping multiple swing states, we may know the projected winner by late afternoon our time.
The closer the election is (and it looks very close), the less likely it is that we’ll know the winner towards the evening. It’s hard to win the election without the ‘tipping point’ state of Pennsylvania, where election workers aren’t allowed to count mail-in ballots until the morning of election day (unlike many other states). In 2020, Pennsylvania wasn’t called for four days, but fewer mail-in ballots and improved processes should deliver a quicker result this year. If Pennsylvania will indeed decide the election, we could know the result around midnight, but it may be more of a marathon.
For more details, see this story in New York magazine; just subtract six hours from their time to get to our time.
So, how might you get through today? You might pretend to do some work but check the news every 15 minutes. You might not want to look at the news until you get home. Or you may, like me, take the day off (or call in sick, because your stomach may truly be upset) to watch it unfold on TV.
Where To Watch The US Election
For live-streaming, I recommend left-leaning MSNBC, which sees Steve Kornacki literally roll up his shirt sleeves (does he not have short-sleeved shirts?) as he operates the ‘big board’ with the electoral map on it. I’ll switch between MSNBC and CNN, because no one can operate the “magic board” while also speaking soothingly like John King. He’s been traveling across the country, particularly in the swing states, so he should have good insights.
The BBC is also broadcasting non-stop, cutting to U.S. correspondents talking to voters in battleground states. If seeing images of Trump throughout TV coverage makes you want to hurl, Radio NZ is also covering the elections thoroughly. The New York Times will be updating the numbers with video and rolling comments – and its ‘needle’ will be swaying like a pendulum between Democrat and Republican. Here in NZ, Jack Tame and the 1News team will have election stories running across Breakfast, 1News at Six, TVNZ+ and 1News.co.nz (check out our chat with Jack Tame here).
If you’re on X formerly known as Twitter, follow expert pollsters Nate Silver and Nate Cohn for analysis of the numbers, and Daily Show writer Dan Amira or The Late Show’s Steven Colbert because you might as well find out news, good or bad, from someone funny. Maybe don’t check in on the owner of X and Trump enabler Elon Musk, who like Trump has reportedly been in regular contact with Putin.
Emotionally Preparing For Election Day
As polls suggest a coin toss, I suggest emotionally preparing for Trump to win. But how might we make our brains do that? Is it simply impossible? If I bet a sum of money on Trump winning, might that ‘hedge my bets’ enough for the universe to grant me a Harris victory? Na: it’s a bit late for that – and I don’t want to mess with the universe.
Seriously though, I’ll have spirits, shot glasses, tissues, a pre-prepared meal, and a bucket to potentially barf that meal into. I’ll chill some champagne (or will that jinx it?). I’ll turn off the TV here and there to listen to some calming music, or go for a walk.
If you’re having friends over, how about some party games? Provide heaps of colouring pencils and pens and see who can colour in a face that best matches Trump’s shade of orange. Who can identify the swing states on an electoral map – and guess who will win each, by colouring them red or blue? Who can correctly predict how many times you’ll hear the phrase “too close to call”? Prepare playlists for both outcomes, and a more neutral one to start.
Oh, and make sure you have a plan to keep any children quiet. Attaching them to an ipad to watch Bluey for hours is totally fine on this occasion (hey, it’s also calming for adults?), as are bribes of ice-cream if they go to bed quietly.
If the anxiety becomes too intense, turn off your phone, try to sleep and, in the morning, steel yourself to look at your phone. If the race still hasn’t been called, you could continue a media blackout until someone tells you it’s been called. In 2016, I read that Trump had won on my phone while on the bus, and accidentally said f**k out loud, thus inadvertently alerting fellow passengers to the result.
Election protection
Should Trump win, Harris will concede, and I will cry and kick some furniture. Then I’ll turn off the TV for four years, not because I don’t care – I do, very much – but because my despair about humanity won’t help my mental health.
If Trump wins, I think there will be a wave of outraged but peaceful protests on the streets of America.
Should Harris win, I’ll open the windows and play Celebration from Kool & The Gang really loud on repeat, and also Beyoncé’s Freedom (Harris’ theme song at rallies). If Harris wins comfortably, expect hand-wringing about the polls being off, with words like ‘herding’ and ‘weighting’ used.
If Trump loses, the rollercoaster won’t be over. Trump just claimed he has “a substantial lead” (based on polls) but added that “bad things could happen”. He’s not even trying to hide his plans. He’s been sowing doubt about the electoral process for months: at his rallies, on social media and in interviews. He’s been saying they need to win by “more than the margin of fraud”. Ballot boxes have already been burned in three states. No wonder election officials have greatly increased security for polling locations during voting and during vote-counting.
Trump will almost certainly declare victory no matter what (last time he did that before the election was called). He’ll tell his followers that the election was stolen, and claim widespread voter fraud.
The Very Real Possibility of Civil Unrest
In this scenario, Trump’s words and actions will likely incite and marshal his base to engage in acts of civil unrest and likely violence. Chillingly, in recent weeks, Trump seems to have suggested that he’s okay with Republican Liz Cheney (who has endorsed Harris) and members of the ‘fake news’ media being shot.
As the New York Times reports, Biden is concerned about what Trump supporters might do – “declining to comment about any preparations that the administration is making to try to counter that kind of violence, saying only that he is briefed about threats to domestic security all the time”.
Biden’s administration will certainly have solid preparations in place in the event of unrest or violence. As part of this, the National Guard – a domestic arm of the military that answers both to state governors and the president – will surely be on standby.
So, if Trump loses, and you don’t want to see any civil unrest, tell family, friends and colleagues you’ve tapped out for now, and take noise-cancelling headphones to work.
And after that?
Should Trump lose, he’ll ask election-official allies in swing states to hold off on certification (though they must certify at some point) for long enough to sow doubt. It’s unlikely but possible that Trump will again enlist people to deliver fake Electoral College results to Congress; this happened but failed last election. Many of the ‘fake electors’ of 2020 (and some other officials) are facing prosecution – that’s one hell of a deterrent.
Pre-election, Trump’s Republican election allies filed lawsuits alleging voter suppression and voter intimidation – even though it’s been them trying to change voting rules and practices, and trying to purge likely Democrats from voting rolls. Should Trump lose, he and his allies will file lawsuits to challenge results. However, lawyers for the Democratic party and their allies have headed off some skulduggery pre-election, and will continue to file and challenge lawsuits if needed.
A week or so ago, Trump publicly boasted that he and Republican Mike Johnson, the current speaker of the House of Representatives, have a “little secret”. It’s likely a back-up plan for the House to install Trump as president via a “contingent election”. Such a scheme is unlikely to succeed unless there’s an Electoral College tie (the likelihood of a tie is less than one percent), but you never know.
And all this is the BEST CASE scenario, because it means Harris will have won.
I’m nauseously optimistic, and I’m off to prepare my playlists.
See you on the other side.
